Covid-19
GladHeart
Mar 22, 2020 at 03:39:11 PM
This may not be in time (or even appropriate) for the first wave of covid-19 but the thinking involved bares serious consideration. Although and unfortunately, it won't necessarily help underdeveloped infrastructures like those in Latin and South America, Africa or the overpopulated Indian sub-continent (*1).
Run an Imperial College London model (which altered both Boris Johnson’s and POTUS’s turn around in combating covid-19), with all present relevant factors: a model that does not (1) overwhelm the hospitals, (2) compresses the overall transmission time instead of fully lengthening it indefinitely, and yet flattens the curve to where needed, (3) continues to allow maximum survival for the most vulnerable elderly; and, as a secondary benefit, (4) allows employment and the economy to hum along on five or seven cylinders.
Right now we are all to isolate and [especially the elderly] wait for a vaccine, even though most of us will likely eventually get covid-19 and we still don't have a vaccine for the rhinovirus. The present strategy seems to be slowing the spread down by all of us isolating in place so that it basically keeps the hospitals and ventilators needed available to greatly reduce the death rate (by at least a factor of five or so it seems if the statics from initially overwhelmed Wuhan are compared to the outlying areas [and where in Italy, many of those over 65 have been forced to be left to expire on gurneys in hospital corridors]). Instead, while continuing to keep the basic criteria in place [of sustaining the curve to best meet our hospital capacity], run a model on letting the young under 40 or 45 or 50 be exposed and get it now. Those above age found should include health care workers if possible. Let the bars and beaches, schools and businesses open to those of young age. It will happen again in our lifetime and the sooner it is practicable the better. It is not a fully open 'herd immunization' if done with strict in place self quarantining of those who are older and more at risk; who would then overwhelm the health system with greatly more complications. Besides, for that portion of the older population [including me] we are already there [in quarantine] now. This approach, with the right cut off age, when instituted, would though quickly in a matter of weeks totally eliminate much of the population [the younger less vulnerable age group] from the 'R(naught)' pool right off the bat. in the beginning and too, eliminate much of the social and economic fallout that we are looking at well into the next year.
www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-death-rates-by-age-south-korea
Business Insider / Andy Kiersz Mar 11, 2020, 4:25 PM
While South Korea reported 2,718 cases among patients under
30 as of March 11, there were zero deaths from COVID-19 among
those younger patients. Only one patient between the ages of
30 and 39 had died, and only one patient in their 40s died.
It would simply continue to fall upon the elder generations to remain ultra-vigilant, as it is now and, perhaps with the vast majority of younger people inoculated by initial allowance of exposure (including health care workers in that age group), actually less a transmission minefield at that point. It would continue to creep forward but, hopefully allow a much more sustainable response.
Reply 22, 2020 at 03:58:49 PM
Not terrible notions but would create a lot of resentments-
and noxious to a ‘free’ society. Sort of saying to allow
those who feel tougher, to get themselves “past” the pool
of transmitters. Involves some assumptions which may very
well be false, in this situation, so serious study is needed
first. Wait at least a month for developing results from Asia.
GladHeart
Mar 22, 2020 at 04:24:33 PM
Thank you for your take. Yes as to the “noxious to a ‘free’ society” but I suggest we are all in lock down now and know what is happening in Italy with the complication rates the elder generations bring to the health care system by bringing it to a breaking point. I simply mean to suggest a partial self-quarantine/lockdown is better than the total one we are going into now **if** it could flatten the curve, keep our health care workers up with it, keep equipment needed (ventilators and PPE) available and lessen the R(naught) pool of spread in a sustainable manner. Controlling this pandemic is said to be like, “stopping the wind”. Let us consider and begin modeling our windbreaks and defences now. Waiting another month may be like waiting for the Persians to descend on Athens instead of confronting the threat at Marathon; or again at Thermopylae and Salamis. Athens was saved once and burned once but, both times the overall objective possible was successfully achieved. Besides, with the country coming into lockdown now and that then become the defacto state of our thought, our internal mental propaganda would easily see it as joyous and welcome relaxation of the herculean effort we had faced and normal life returning, much like spring, albeit slowly.
(*1) Mar 27, 2020
Sad to say and, with no bean counter bias or, lack of compassion, Modi may have it wrong. India's best option may be to let it [the virus] proliferate; if, the figures run would so indicate. India is, as a simple fact, shoulder to shoulder overpopulated and, much of its city and rural economy is on a day to day basis of basic necessities, day wages and, even alms. Its hospital ventilator system availability is almost a moot point with a population as it is in its extreme for such a compact, overrun land mass. Slowing it down, instead of letting it run its course, in this case, might cause far more trauma and do far more damage than letting it do what it is going to do ultimately: likely affect [probably well over] 60% of the population or more before it has run its course. In this case, as equally in the developed world, the only stat of importance in planning a tailored response; is, how many ventilators days are available in relations to the curve in order to keep up with or, move significantly the mortality rate this visus will inflict, as it is constituted, in its pandemic wont.
Mar 22, 2020 at 03:39:11 PM
This may not be in time (or even appropriate) for the first wave of covid-19 but the thinking involved bares serious consideration. Although and unfortunately, it won't necessarily help underdeveloped infrastructures like those in Latin and South America, Africa or the overpopulated Indian sub-continent (*1).
Run an Imperial College London model (which altered both Boris Johnson’s and POTUS’s turn around in combating covid-19), with all present relevant factors: a model that does not (1) overwhelm the hospitals, (2) compresses the overall transmission time instead of fully lengthening it indefinitely, and yet flattens the curve to where needed, (3) continues to allow maximum survival for the most vulnerable elderly; and, as a secondary benefit, (4) allows employment and the economy to hum along on five or seven cylinders.
Right now we are all to isolate and [especially the elderly] wait for a vaccine, even though most of us will likely eventually get covid-19 and we still don't have a vaccine for the rhinovirus. The present strategy seems to be slowing the spread down by all of us isolating in place so that it basically keeps the hospitals and ventilators needed available to greatly reduce the death rate (by at least a factor of five or so it seems if the statics from initially overwhelmed Wuhan are compared to the outlying areas [and where in Italy, many of those over 65 have been forced to be left to expire on gurneys in hospital corridors]). Instead, while continuing to keep the basic criteria in place [of sustaining the curve to best meet our hospital capacity], run a model on letting the young under 40 or 45 or 50 be exposed and get it now. Those above age found should include health care workers if possible. Let the bars and beaches, schools and businesses open to those of young age. It will happen again in our lifetime and the sooner it is practicable the better. It is not a fully open 'herd immunization' if done with strict in place self quarantining of those who are older and more at risk; who would then overwhelm the health system with greatly more complications. Besides, for that portion of the older population [including me] we are already there [in quarantine] now. This approach, with the right cut off age, when instituted, would though quickly in a matter of weeks totally eliminate much of the population [the younger less vulnerable age group] from the 'R(naught)' pool right off the bat. in the beginning and too, eliminate much of the social and economic fallout that we are looking at well into the next year.
www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-death-rates-by-age-south-korea
Business Insider / Andy Kiersz Mar 11, 2020, 4:25 PM
While South Korea reported 2,718 cases among patients under
30 as of March 11, there were zero deaths from COVID-19 among
those younger patients. Only one patient between the ages of
30 and 39 had died, and only one patient in their 40s died.
It would simply continue to fall upon the elder generations to remain ultra-vigilant, as it is now and, perhaps with the vast majority of younger people inoculated by initial allowance of exposure (including health care workers in that age group), actually less a transmission minefield at that point. It would continue to creep forward but, hopefully allow a much more sustainable response.
Reply 22, 2020 at 03:58:49 PM
Not terrible notions but would create a lot of resentments-
and noxious to a ‘free’ society. Sort of saying to allow
those who feel tougher, to get themselves “past” the pool
of transmitters. Involves some assumptions which may very
well be false, in this situation, so serious study is needed
first. Wait at least a month for developing results from Asia.
GladHeart
Mar 22, 2020 at 04:24:33 PM
Thank you for your take. Yes as to the “noxious to a ‘free’ society” but I suggest we are all in lock down now and know what is happening in Italy with the complication rates the elder generations bring to the health care system by bringing it to a breaking point. I simply mean to suggest a partial self-quarantine/lockdown is better than the total one we are going into now **if** it could flatten the curve, keep our health care workers up with it, keep equipment needed (ventilators and PPE) available and lessen the R(naught) pool of spread in a sustainable manner. Controlling this pandemic is said to be like, “stopping the wind”. Let us consider and begin modeling our windbreaks and defences now. Waiting another month may be like waiting for the Persians to descend on Athens instead of confronting the threat at Marathon; or again at Thermopylae and Salamis. Athens was saved once and burned once but, both times the overall objective possible was successfully achieved. Besides, with the country coming into lockdown now and that then become the defacto state of our thought, our internal mental propaganda would easily see it as joyous and welcome relaxation of the herculean effort we had faced and normal life returning, much like spring, albeit slowly.
(*1) Mar 27, 2020
Sad to say and, with no bean counter bias or, lack of compassion, Modi may have it wrong. India's best option may be to let it [the virus] proliferate; if, the figures run would so indicate. India is, as a simple fact, shoulder to shoulder overpopulated and, much of its city and rural economy is on a day to day basis of basic necessities, day wages and, even alms. Its hospital ventilator system availability is almost a moot point with a population as it is in its extreme for such a compact, overrun land mass. Slowing it down, instead of letting it run its course, in this case, might cause far more trauma and do far more damage than letting it do what it is going to do ultimately: likely affect [probably well over] 60% of the population or more before it has run its course. In this case, as equally in the developed world, the only stat of importance in planning a tailored response; is, how many ventilators days are available in relations to the curve in order to keep up with or, move significantly the mortality rate this visus will inflict, as it is constituted, in its pandemic wont.
posted by GladHeart @ 3:19 PM
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